Soka Gakkai Peace Committee co-organized an online forum titled "Nuclear Close Calls: Moments When the World Came Close to Nuclear War" in partnership with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and the Toda Peace Institute (TPI) on 13 March 2026. Amidst unprecedented and heightening global tensions surrounding nuclear risk, the forum offered the public a vital opportunity to examine historical "nuclear close calls." By exploring moments when the world stood on the brink of nuclear war, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, the event challenged the prevailing myth that nuclear deterrence guarantees international security.

Moderated by Chie Sunada of the Committee, the event opened with welcome remarks from co-organizers Dr. Stein Tønnesson, Director of the TPI, and Masako Toki, Senior Project Manager and Research Associate at CNS. Following this, Yanliang Pan, Research Associate at CNS, delivered a presentation themed “Nuclear Close Calls: Illustrating the Likelihood of Nuclear War.” Pan emphasized that understanding nuclear risk requires evaluating both the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons and the actual likelihood of their use. He challenged the myth of deterrence by highlighting the 1995 Norwegian rocket incident. During this event, degraded Russian radars mistook a scientific rocket for a US nuclear missile; technical blind spots, miscommunication and "launch-on-warning" pressures nearly resulted in an accidental strike. Warning that today's deteriorating geopolitical relations and the integration of AI into nuclear command systems are escalating the risk of accidental launches, Pan concluded that humanity has survived past "close calls" through pure luck — and luck is not a viable global security strategy.

Following Pan’s presentation, Dr. Sverre Lodgaard, Former Director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), delivered the keynote speech. Providing a geopolitical framework for understanding these risks, he noted that the post-Cold War "window of opportunity" for disarmament has firmly closed. Dr. Lodgaard categorized nuclear close calls into two types: unintentional (caused by technical or human error) and intentional (used as deliberate diplomatic brinkmanship). Warning that the world currently faces a dangerous mix of high tension, decreasing transparency and the alarming adoption of nuclear war-fighting doctrines, he outlined several solutions:

• Establishing direct hotlines: Direct hotlines could facilitate de-escalation between top military leaders, particularly across tense borders.
• Implementing credible "No-First-Use" policies: To be credible, verbal declarations must be reflected in real force postures, meaning physical disengagement to prevent frontline weapons from being used first out of fear of being captured or destroyed.
• Creating an independent global commission: Proposed by non-nuclear weapon states and composed of international public figures, this commission aims to bridge the deep divides between major antagonists on the international scene, advocate for “common security” and facilitate the resumption of dialogue. 

In his closing remarks, Tomohiko Aishima, Chair of the Committee, stressed that historical "close calls" debunk the myth that nuclear weapons guarantee peace. Citing a narrowly averted 1962 incident in Okinawa involving a mistaken launch order for a Mace B nuclear missile as an example of how easily human error can trigger global devastation, he urged participants to expand grassroots solidarity through disarmament education to achieve the abolition of nuclear weapons and protect human security.

The forum brought together over 530 participants, who shared the following impactful insights after the event:

• “I was shocked by how often nuclear close calls have happened. I am now determined to take action to mobilize public opinion and overcome these global crises.”
• “The historical nuclear close calls in Okinawa and Norway prove that nuclear deterrence is an unstable illusion. I now realize just how directly this issue affects us all.”
• "I was deeply inspired by the vital role of peace and disarmament education, and the realization that everyone can contribute their unique expertise. The message that public opinion moves history, even when hope seems lost, left a deep impression on me."